FATE V FUTURE

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FUTUREBOARD

🔼 Dutch Bros. Coffee. The “bro-ista” chain’s Q4 revs were up 44%, surpassing US$200m for the first time. Haven’t heard of them? You will soon. They want 4,000 shops by 2038 »»

🔽 Rolex and Patek Philippe prices. The Richemont-owned site Watchfinder has dropped watch prices by some 15% thanks to increased supply »» 

💬 “A very challenging innovation.” Starbucks is adding olive oil to some of its drinks. It was the CEOs idea »»

🛩️ The 14 best new restaurants in NYC »»

👗 The Nike Air Jordan 2 Low “UNC to Chicago” hits shelves in March »»

💎 Meanwhile, Chanel is quietly leveling up its sneaker game »»

QUICKFATES

Is “wellness” making us sicker? »»

Fat, Sugar, Salt… you’ve been thinking about food all wrong »»

Experts predicted a wheat shortage after Russia invaded Ukraine. Why didn't it happen? »»

The new Mercedes E-class will have TikTok, Angry Birds, and Zoom built into a touchscreen that extends all the way across the dashboard »»

Ryan Reynolds is attached to produce and star in Boy Band, a new comedy for Paramount »»

Bosses are designing ‘resimercial’ offices that look like your living room »»

Meanwhile, is this the most beautiful office in the world? »»

The five-day workweek is dead »»

Heard of Project Sunrise? It’s Qantas’s internal code name for their long awaited direct flights from Sydney to London, and Sydney to New York. After years of planning, they’re coming in late 2025. This week, the airline released images of the front of plane seats. First Class will sport a comfy chair and a separate bed »»

Coinbase, the second largest crypto exchange by volume, launched Base, an Ethereum-focused layer-2 blockchain »» The newsletter's writer owns shares of Coinbase

Speaking of, Cathie Wood continues to load up on Coinbase »» 

London’s best sandwiches »»

Meet Decktopus, an AI-powered presentation builder »»

New York’s Marian Goodman Gallery is moving to Tribeca after 46 years in Midtown »»

The decline of BeReal underscores a greater dissatisfaction: with apps, with influencers, and with any sort of glorified content »»

DEEPFATE 🤑 THE NEW DEAL

Meta’s going to start charging its users for increased Instagram and Facebook post visibility. What does that mean for the ad-based media business model?

META’S LAUNCHING A premium tier.

• Generations of social media users have grown up expecting social to be free.

• Surprise! It’s not.

• This week, “Meta became the latest and largest major social media company to announce a paid version of its products with the ‘Meta Verified’ program.”

• “Facebook and Instagram will each charge users US$12 a month for a blue verification badge, more protection against account impersonation, access to ‘a real person’ in customer support to help with common account issues, and — most importantly — ‘increased reach and visibility.’”

• People are upset.

• “It’s kind of disappointing to see Instagram start to trend toward that commercial, more money-seeking business,” said one New York City-based lifestyle influencer with over 12,000 followers.

BUT WHY? META is a commercial, more-money seeking business.

• And it’s a mature, publicly traded one, one that has to replace fast growth with higher profit margins if the stock is going to stay afloat.

ZOOM OUT: DOES Meta charging for a service that used to be free signal the end of “The Deal?”

• Regular readers know that “The Deal” is my nickname for the advertising-based media business model.

• The Deal goes: “show me what I want for free, and in exchange I’ll look at an ad every now and then” —and it’s fueled every type of mass media, from radio to TikTok.

• Does “Meta Verified” mean “The Deal” is done?

NO WAY! THE Deal has been around for 100 years, and will be for 100 more.

• For starters, there will still be a free Instagram and Facebook tier.

• And if Twitter’s “paid blue tick” (verification) experiment is anything to go by, 99% of users will opt not to pay for Meta Verified.

SO, WILL META’S attempt to “double dip” —meaning, make money from advertisers as well as from its users— even work?

• There’s evidence it will.

• “Double dipping” exists in plenty of other industries:

• You pay for cable/satellite TV, and still get served ads between shows.

• You pay for a Samsung television, and still get served ads on the menu screen.

• You pay for a NYC taxi, and still get shown ads in the back seat.

• Prefer Uber to cabs? Now, you pay for your Uber ride, and still get ads in the app.

AND CHARGING PEOPLE for what was once free is also totally a thing.

• It’s hard to believe, but checked bags used to be included in the price of an airline ticket. Any airline ticket, including economy.

• Withdrawing your cash at an ATM in the US used to be free too. (In the UK, it still is in many places)

• Do those examples sound like ancient history?

• Just this past Summer, BMW announced that they would charge a monthly fee for drivers to switch on their heated seats… in cars they already own.

• Expect this trend to continue. Mostly because it works.

SEE, ONCE COMPANIES start charging customers for things, those fees usually stay.

• Inertia is one reason why: people simply get used to paying.

• Good business is another: companies seek to increase their revenues over time, not decrease them.

OK, WHAT’S THE point here?

• The Deal’s not going away.

• But Meta’s new setup, and the examples above, all suggest that there is a “New Deal” in town.

• The New Deal is: “charge me for what I want to see/do, and, uh, show me some ads too, I guess. Like, whatever.”

• That right there is a perfect summation of our information overload era.

More

Social media used to be free. Not anymore »»

Meta Verified shows a company running out of ideas »»

Does paid-for Facebook and Instagram signal end of free-access orthodoxy? »»

Written by Jon Kallus. Any feedback? Simply reply.